The Gamble: Choice and Chance in the 2012 Presidential Election

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Romney was also ahead in terms of public opinion in December of More likely Republican primary voters had favorable opinions of Romney than of any other GOP contender.

a book review by Andrew Rosenbaum: The Gamble: Choice and Chance in the Presidential Election

On average, the party was embracing Romney going into the Iowa caucus. Furthermore, Romney was never disliked by the party base, despite reports of the contrary. In fact, nearly all segments of the party recognized Romney as the frontrunner and had high opinions of him. This is probably why the nomination of Paul Ryan as a running mate has not helped Romney in the polls — the group that Ryan is meant to court already liked Romney well-enough. To take this election away from the incumbent, Mitt Romney has to win over moderates and independents.

The Gamble: Choice and Chance in the 2012 Presidential Election - Updated Edition

As his convention unfolds, will it focus on courting the political middle or rallying the base of the party? Stay tuned. August 23, , p. Whether one agrees with Obama about various subjects or not, one would have wished him to do something according to his views in the interests of the country. Yet he overcame this obstacle in the election. It is even more remarkable given that we all expected Obama to be penalized for being black. This, the two authors take pains to show, probably cost him four points of approval rating overall, and yet he surpassed this obstacle, too. As for Romney, he had the support of the Republican leadership as a moderate candidate, and the authors show that he managed to be the least objectionable to every wing of the very divided party.

A poll from December showed that he was viewed positively by likely Republican primary voters whether they were conservatives or moderates, pro-life or pro-choice, relatively wealthy or not.


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More than two-thirds of the Tea Party members surveyed expressed a favorable opinion of him, with non-Tea Party people doing so at the same rate. Ironically, Romney called for action in Syria as a candidate, and Obama scored points by refusing to consider it—a bit of a problem for the president now, of course. Overall the sense of the book is that Obama was too strong for Romney to beat.


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It makes a very carefully documented case for this point of view. Jonathan Beecher Field. Preparation for democratic citizenship demands Under the guise of fighting hate speech, the ADL Toussaint Losier , William J. Barber II.


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